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Subject of Research. The paper deals with estimation of detection probability of intruder by passive infrared detector in different conditions of velocity and direction for automated analyses of physical protection systems effectiveness. Method. Analytic formulas for detection distance distribution laws obtained by means of experimental histogram approximation are used. Main Results. Applicability of different distribution laws has been studied, such as Rayleigh, Gauss, Gamma, Maxwell and Weibull distribution. Based on walk tests results, approximation of experimental histograms of detection distance probability distribution laws by passive infrared detectors was done. Conformity of the histograms to the mentioned analytical laws according to fitting criterion χ 2 has been checked for different conditions of velocity and direction of intruder movement. Mean and variance of approximate distribution laws were equal to the same parameters of experimental histograms for corresponding intruder movement parameters. Approximation accuracy evaluation for above mentioned laws was done with significance level of 0.05. According to fitting criterion χ 2, the Rayleigh and Gamma laws are corresponded mostly close to the histograms for different velocity and direction of intruder movement. Dependences of approximation accuracy for different conditions of intrusion have been got. They are usable for choosing an approximation law in the certain condition. Practical Relevance. Analytic formulas for detection probability are usable for modeling of intrusion process and objective effectiveness estimation of physical protection systems by both developers and users.

Еstimation of intrusion detection probability by passive infrared detectors