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The objective was to estimate the probability of dairy cows producing milk with fat and protein levels above the percentages desired by the industry, as well as the main factors that influence these levels. Milk samples of 78 first-lactation cows from 29 rural properties in the Planalto Norte Catarinense region were analyzed individually. The reference values for the analysis of fat and protein content were 4.0% and 3.3%, respectively. Logistic regression was used for analysis of the variables and the parameters were evaluated using odds ratios. Breed, age, gestation length, and grazing time are the variables that most influence the probability of producing milk with a protein content above 3.3%. Increasing milk production reduces the probability of obtaining milk with a fat content that allows the maximum bonus. Improvements in the cow’s body condition increase the probability of obtaining milk with a fat content that meets the industry’s requirements for maximum bonus.

Probabilidade de produção de leite com teores de gordura e proteína desejados pela indústria