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The research problem consists in the need to resolve the contradiction between the increasing number of migrants in the recipient region, affecting the tension of the socioeconomic situation and the lack of a scientifically grounded system for the effective management of incoming migration flows through the example of the Omsk Region. The purpose of the study is to develop a system for effective management of migration processes based on the analysis and forecasting of the development of the socioeconomic situation in the region by means of cognitive modelling. The authors used the following research methods: questionnaires, expert assessment and cognitive modelling. In the course of the study, based on an analysis of the results of the questionnaire and expert assessment, the authors identified the control factors that have the most significant impact on the level of tension of the socioeconomic situation from the incoming migration flows, and created a cognitive model. A series of simulation experiments was carried out on the developed model, which made it possible to predict changes in the target factor — the level of tension in the socioeconomic situation, as a generalized characteristic reflecting the presence of contradictions in the interests of the local population and migrants, depending on the degree of influence on the controlling factors. The proposals on the effective management of the tension of the socioeconomic situation are formulated taking into account the influence of incoming migration flows. The results

Forecasting the Migration Processes Impact on the Regional Socio-Economic Situation By Means of Cognitive Modelling