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After the collapse of the Brettonwood system in 1973, most of the countries have abandoned to use solely the fixed exchange rate regime, and different countries have adapted different exchange rate regimes. Then, the impact of both the exchange rate level and the exchange rate volatility or variability especially on exports, the bilateral trade flows and the volumes of trade have been empirically and theoretically discussed. A large number of studies examine both the effect of the exchange rate and its volatility on agricultural trade. However, no consensus was reached yet on the relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural trade. As discussed in the literature, it is important to use disaggregated data and/or data on the individual commodities to get more meaningful results on the size and magnitude of the effects of the real exchange rates on agricultural commodities trade. (Awokuse and Yuan 2006; Byrne et al. 2008; Bahmani-Oskooee and Hegerty 2009; Karemera et al. 2011). Byrne et al. (2008) discuss the possibility of finding a negative effect of the exchange rate volatility on trade by pooling the data of all industries together, and claim that the disaggregation of the data such as firm, industry or commodity level could provide more appropriate and meaningful results. Considering the individual sectors and/or commodities is vitally important to understand the exact nature of the relation and to further tailor effective policy measures based on these fine results. Thus, we investigate the relationship between the real exchange rates and several of the most important Turkish agricultural commodities. They represent almost a quarter of the overall Turkish agricultural exports.

The effect of real exchange rates and their volatilities on the selected agricultural commodity exports: A case study on Turkey, 1971-2010