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and profits were at historically low levels and there was no expectation of imminent change, mining companies began rethinking their business models at the same time as mineralrich countries began revisiting their plans on how to better extract social value from mining. These developments followed on the heels of record returns to mining companies and massive expansion of the sector consequent to growth in Asia, especially China and other developing economies. Since mining companies appeared to have secured more than their fair share of returns, demands increased for mining to support infrastructure and industrial development. But by then the commodity cycle was well past its 2011 peak, when a decade of growth in the east and elsewhere came to an abrupt end (Schussler, 2016). In 2016 The World Bank lowered price expectations for 37 out of the 46 commodities that it monitors. Among the important mineral commodities included in the index are oil and iron ore. According to the World Bank, compared to prices in 2014, the price of energy minerals fell by 45% in 2015 and of that metals fell by 8% on the back of slow demand in China starting in 2010 (World Bank Group, 2016). Structural changes in the Chinese economy appear to be the main reason for these falling prices, with investments in commodity-intensive sectors such as public infrastructure and heavy industry giving way to ‘commodity-light’ investments in services and consumption. In addition, China was turning its attention to investment outside of the country to rebuild ancient trade routes across Eastern Europe and Asia, over land and sea – the so-called ‘Silk Routes’. This is an ambitious plan with interrelated objectives, such as increasing the country’s trade options, enabling Chinese companies to work outside of China (since demand is slow at home), and acquiring assets along the routes in exchange for infrastructure. Of themselves, the new Silk Routes are not expected to affect commodity prices, either positively or negatively (Bloomberg, 2016). Falling demand for minerals has led to lower levels of return and reduced interest from investors and lenders, and has brought many longstanding uncertainties and externalities associated with the business of mining into the foreground and into the public eye. These include uncertainties around energy supply, the future of fossil fuels, and the availability of water; the costing of environmental and health impacts, access to mining land and land use, and the magnitude and severity of environmental and social impacts (Bardi, 2014; Thorndahl, 2011; Marinovich, 2016; Momberg and Rich, 2015; Ernest and Young, 2015). Exploration activity has also been affected by dwindling investor interest, with greenfield exploration dropping to 29% of total exploration globally and exploration finance dropping to 9% of 2007 levels on Canadian exchanges (PDAC, 2016). While at a global level lower energy costs staved off the closure of high-cost mines, mining companies continued to experience difficulties centred on Mining redesigned innovation and technology needs for the future–a South African perspective

Mining redesigned - innovation and technology needs for the future - a South African perspective