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The technological advancements in computing power in the last 30 years have enabled the practical visualization of complex geological environments in three-dimensional (3D) space. 3D models and their application in the mining industry are becoming increasingly important, for example, to identify future exploration areas and targets, for mineral assessment and evaluation, and prediction and planning of future drill-holes. However, acquiring borehole data is an expensive practice, with drilling programmes costing mining companies up to billions of dollars each year. Tighter financial constraints on exploration budgets result in more pressure being put on three-dimensional models to accurately identify future target areas. This article aims to evaluate the potential drilling success of simulated greenfield and brownfield exploration using a 3D geological model created of Leeuwpoort tin mine. These simulations investigate the probability of intersecting a mineralized zone of economic interest and evaluate how the probability is affected when the number of drill-holes and distance from a known intersection changes. Furthermore, these simulations attempt to obtain an indication for the minimum number of drill-holes required for a successful exploration campaign at the mine. The investigation also aims to establish a first-pass attempt towards developing a 'favoured procedure' for identifying potential exploration targets for tin deposits with geological and geochemical characteristics similar to Leeuwpoort. The results for the 'favoured procedure' established are statistically tested using the 'bootstrapping' method. By simulating various exploration scenarios, the study also emphasises the importance of predicting successful drilling, which aids in budgeting for drilling programmes as the minimum number of drillholes needed for a specific exploration project can be determined.

Evaluating the potential drilling success of exploration programmes using a three-dimensional geological model - A case study