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When assessing radiation-related risk among the atomic bomb survivors, choices in modeling approach can have an important impact on the results, which are then used to inform radiation protection standards throughout the world. The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki produced a mixed-field radiation exposure from two sources: neutrons and gamma rays. Neutrons are more densely ionizing and cause greater biological damage per unit absorbed dose, resulting in greater relative biological effectiveness (RBE) than gamma rays. To account for this, a combined weighted dose is typically calculated as the sum of the gamma-ray dose and 10 times the neutron dose in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation's reports of mortality, solid cancer incidence and other outcomes. In addition, the colon, which is often chosen as the whole-body representative organ in these analyses, is relatively deep in the body and therefore its dose calculation involves heavy body shielding of neutrons and a low neutron/gamma-ray ratio. With added follow-up and recently updated doses, we used a data-driven approach to determine the best-fitting neutron RBE for a range of organs of varying depth. Aggregated person-year tables of solid cancer incidence (1958-2009) from the Life Span Study were created with separate neutron and gamma-ray DS02R1 doses for several organs including breast, brain, thyroid, bone marrow, lung, liver and colon. Typical excess relative risk models estimating the linear effect of radiation dose were fitted using a range of neutron weights (1-250) to calculate combined dose for each organ, and model deviances were compared to assess fit. Furthermore, models using separate terms for gamma-ray and neutron dose were also examined, wherein the ratio of the neutron/gamma-ray linear terms indicated the best estimate of the RBE. The best-fitting RBE value for the traditional weighted colon dose was 80 [95% confidence interval (CI): 20-190], while the RBEs for other organs using weighted doses ranged from 25 to 60, with the best-fitting weights and confidence interval widths both incrementally increasing with greater depth of organ. Models using separate neutron- and gamma-ray-dose terms gave similar results to weighted linear combinations, with a neutron/gamma-ray term ratio of 79.9 (95% CI: 18.8-192.3) for colon. These results indicated that the traditionally modeled RBE of 10 may underestimate the effect of neutrons across the full dose range, although these updated estimates still have fairly wide confidence bounds. Furthermore, the colon is among the deepest of organs and may not be the best choice as a single surrogate organ dose, as it may minimize the role of the neutrons. Future work with more refined organ doses could shed more light on RBE-related information available in the Life Span Study data.

Assessing the Relative Biological Effectiveness of Neutrons across Organs of Varying Depth among the Atomic Bomb Survivors