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Mexican avocado producers face phytosanitary barriers that limit the ability to ship avocados to foreign markets due to concerns about invasion by unwanted pests. The principal regulated pests are the big avocado seed weevil, Heilipus lauri Boheman; the small avocado seed weevils Conotrachelus aguacatae Barber and C. perseae Barber; the branch borer weevil, Copturus aguacatae Kissinger (all Coleoptera: Curculionidae); and the avocado seed moth, Stenoma catenifer Walsingham (Lepidoptera: Elachistidae). In Mexico, distribution information of these pests is largely based on a slow integration of the geographic data. This study was conducted to determine the potential distribution of these 5 insect pests in Mexican avocadogrowing areas by using the maximum entropy algorithm. Distributional data of these insects were obtained from scientific literature, databases, and field collection, and incorporated into the MaxEnt model using 19 global climatic variables and elevation data. Distributional models for Mexico, and geographic interaction with avocado-growing areas of the country, were calculated. Conoctrachelus aguacatae, C. perseae, Copturus aguacatae, and H. lauri showed similar environmental suitability patterns in Mexico, with a potential distribution from central to southern Mexico. High suitability was projected principally in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt and surrounding biogeographic provinces. Stenoma catenifer exhibited an irregular environmental suitability pattern, with preference for western Mexico. Altitude, isothermality, and seasonality of precipitation were the variables that most influenced potential distribution of analyzed species. Geographic interaction with avocado-growing areas ranged from wider (Conoctrachelus aguacatae, C. perseae, Copturus aguacatae, and S. catenifer) to narrow or irregular (H. lauri), but the last species has the potential to invade new geographic areas. For the first time, the geographic distribution of these 5 insect pests was determined based on environmental suitability and their geographic interaction with avocados. These data could support development of management strategies throughout the country, and help focusing surveys and control tactics.

Actual and Potential Distribution of Five Regulated Avocado Pests Across Mexico, Using the Maximum Entropy Algorithm