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Revolutions succeed or fail in varying degrees. The article considers the Arab Spring revolts from the point of view of two kinds of processes of political change: tipping point revolution and the state breakdown revolution. Major revolutions are those that bring about big structural changes. Tipping point revolutions, without long-term basis in the structural factors that bring state breakdown, are only moderately successful at best; and they often fall short even of modest changes, devolving into destructive civil wars, or outright failure to change the regime at all.

Revoluções de ponto de virada e revoluções por colapso do estado: Por que revoluções têm êxito ou fracassam?