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In the beginning of the international financial crisis, the fact that the interna‐ tional crisis was restricted to the developed countries, and the emerging countries’ fiscal and external situation was comfortable, led a number of analysts and policy‐ makers to give credence to the hypothesis of a ‘decoupling’ of emerging countries; that is, the notion that these economies would be able to sustain their dynamic performance and prove immune to contagion from the crisis. In 2008, moreover, the main concern among central banks, market analysts and multilateral organiza‐ tions was with the inflationary pressures that emerging countries might suffer as a result of strongly rising food and oil prices. however, particularly after Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008, eco‐ nomic agents’ expectations as to the magnitude of, and developments from, the international financial crisis changed radically. The crisis spread to the whole world economy by a contagion effect, affecting the credit and capital markets, as well as international trade, especially by countries dependent on commodity exports, whose prices fell abruptly. In that context, some emerging countries experienced not just macroeconomic instabilities (in terms of economic activity or price volatil‐ ity), but also situations of fiscal and external fragility, regardless of whether or not — prior to the crisis — they had displayed what were regarded as sound macro‐ economic fundamentals1. The outcome was no different in South America: by the end of 2008, most countries in the region had fallen into recession. In 2009, as shown in Graph 1 (Annex), GDP growth in the region’s main emerging countries was negative in

Brazil's response: how did financial regulation and monetary policy influence recovery?