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This work conducts a prospection of future scenarios related to the construction of ports in the Uruguayan side of the Merin Lagoon, by consulting experts in different fields that are familiar with the impact that the constructions of such installations would generate. The prospection considers different scenarios that could occur, ascribing to each a probability of occurrence, while the classic projection barely distinguishes a scenario. The prospection of scenarios is a fundamental part of strategic analysis. In this study they are determined by the application of the Grumbach method, the Delphi method, and the Cross-Impact Matrix analysis, the events and scenarios that could occur if the ports projected to be implanted in the Uruguayan region of the Merin Lagoon, would be successfully constructed. These events consider the economic and social setting, as well as major actors present in the system, such as government agencies and social and private entities. This study differs from other work that has been done, since apart from considering points of view that are strictly related to transportation, employment, educational, commercial, and environmental aspects, it takes into account organizations, institutions and companies involved, such as subsystems, that by taking part of a single system, form the regional collective subject. In this context, the possible scenarios are visualized, as well as the determination of the correlation between the different events that comprise those scenario, taking into account the degree of motor skills and dependency of each, understanding that the results obtained could be useful in the strategic order of the decision making process. In the most probable scenario the eight events that were finally selected, occur with a probability of occurrence of 45.65%. Seven events are positioned as colligates, one acting as an explanatory agent, two are autonomous, and one acts as the outcome existing convergence between the opinions of the participants from the public and private sector.

Prospección de escenarios relacionados a la construcción de los puertos uruguayos en la región de la Laguna Merín