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RESUMO: Este artigo avalia a relacao entre liberalizacao financeira externa – tanto abertura quanto integracao financeira – e desempenho macroeconomico da economia brasileira a partir da estimacao de um modelo baseado em vetores autorregressivos com correcao de erros (VEC). Como contribuicao potencialmente original, foi encontrada a precedencia, no sentido de Granger, dos movimentos do ciclo financeiro global diante do grau de integracao financeira da economia brasileira, e deste diante do risco-pais. Quanto aos demais resultados, um aumento do grau de abertura da conta capital e financeira nao gerou efeitos macroeconomicos significativos. Ja uma elevacao do grau de integracao financeira teve desdobramentos problematicos em variaveis como volatilidade cambial e nivel de atividade. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: liberalizacao financeira; desempenho macroeconomico; Brasil  ABSTRACT: This paper discusses the relationship between external financial liberalization – both in terms of capital account liberalization and financial integration – and the macroeconomic performance of Brazil’s economy by estimating vector error correction model (VEC). As a potentially original contribution, it has been found a causal relation, in Grange sense, between the global financial movements and the degree of financial integration and between the latter and the country risk. Also, evidence has been found that an increased degree of capital account liberalization did not produce relevant macroeconomic effects. Additionally, results show that a high degree of financial integration had problematic repercussions in variables such as exchange rate volatility and activity level. KEYWORDS: financial liberalization; macroeconomic performance; Brazil

LIBERALIZAÇÃO FINANCEIRA E DESEMPENHO MACROECONÔMICO BRASILEIRO: EVIDÊNCIAS EMPÍRICAS A PARTIR DO MODELO VEC