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Plant cover plays an essential role in the maintenance and balance of thehydrological cycle, performing functions in the control of water availability, whichguarantee flow permanence. The use of mathematical models is an alternative torepresent the hydrological system and help in the understanding of phenomenainvolving the variables of the water cycle, in order to anticipate and predictimpacts from potential changes in land use. In the present study, the hydrologicalmodel SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to analyse the dynamics of flowand water flow in the Pará River Basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil, aiming to evaluate theimpact caused by changes in land use in water availability. The adjusted model wasassessed by the coefficient of efficiency of Nash-Sutcliffe (between -0.057 to-0.059), indicating high correlation and coefficient of residual mass (0.757 to0.793) and therefore a satisfactory fit. An increase of about 10% in the basin flowwas estimated, as a function of changes in land use, when simulating the removal ofthe original 'Cerrado' vegetation and of the seasonal semideciduous forest forpasture implementation in 38% of the basin

Impact of changes in land use in the flow of the Pará River Basin, MG