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METODOS ESTIMADORES DOS PARÂMETROS DA DISTRIBUICAO DE GUMBEL E SUA INFLUENCIA EM ESTUDOS HIDROLOGICOS DE PROJETO  Carlos Rogerio de Mello; Antonio Marciano da SilvaLaboratorio de Hidraulica, Departamento de Engenharia, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, rog.mello@terra.com.br  1 RESUMO Este trabalho objetiva estudar os efeitos que o metodo de estimativa dos parâmetros da distribuicao de Gumbel proporcionam na estimativa da equacao de chuvas intensas aplicando-se um modelo chuva-vazao, a consequente influencia no hidrograma de projeto. Trabalhou-se com 7 estacoes pluviometricas da regiao Alto Rio Grande, ajustando-se a distribuicao Gumbel a serie historica de precipitacao maxima diaria anual, pelas metodologias da Maxima Verossimilhanca e Momentos. Utilizando o metodo de desagregacao de chuvas, estimaram-se as respectivas equacoes de chuvas intensas. Com o metodo CN-SCS foram gerados os hidrogramas de projeto para uma bacia hidrografica hipotetica. Por meio do teste de l2, foram feitas comparacoes entre os modelos ajustados pelas metodologias. Verificou-se que as series historicas ajustadas por Maxima Verossimilhanca produziram os menores valores de l2, concluindo sobre a sua maior precisao. No entanto, os efeitos na geracao da equacao de chuvas intensas e por consequencia, no hidrograma de projeto, apresentaram variacoes que, em alguns casos, foram de magnitude consideravel, e em outros, de menor relevância em termos praticos. UNITERMOS: equacao de chuvas intensas, maxima verossimilhanca, metodo dos momentos.  MELLO, C.R.de; SILVA, A. M. da. ESTIMATING METHODS OF GUMBEL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON DESIGN HYDROLOGIC STUDIES  2 ABSTRACT This work aimed to evaluate the influence of parameter estimating methods of Gumbel probability distribution for adjustment of p-d-f rainfall equation and, through rainfall-runoff model, generation of design hydrograph. Maximum annual daily rainfall from seven (7) weather stations, belonging to Alto Rio Grande region, were used and Gumbel probability distribution was adjusted to its parameters, which were estimated by the methods of Maximum Likelihood and Moment. Qui-square statistical test was applied to evaluate the accuracy of both methods. Desegregation rainfall technique was applied to estimate the respective p-d-f rainfall equations. CN-SCS method was used, based on estimated p-d-f rainfall equations to generate the design hydrograph for a hypothetical watershed. Through qui-squared test, adjusted methods were compared using different methodologies. Historical series that were adjusted by estimated parameters of Maximum Likelihood were more accurate, based on slower qui-square. However, effects on p-d-f rainfall equations and design hydrograph showed considerable differences in any situations, but in others these variations had smaller relevance in practical situations. KEYWORDS: p-d-f rainfall equation, Maximum Likelihood, Method of Moments.

MÉTODOS ESTIMADORES DOS PARÂMETROS DA DISTRIBUIÇÃO DE GUMBEL E SUA INFLUÊNCIA EM ESTUDOS HIDROLÓGICOS DE PROJETO