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The paper assesses suitability of J. Davies’ model for simulation of protest activity. The authors make an attempt to show proximity of J. Davies’ model and synergetic paradigm of the order parameter. The authors’ modification of J. Davies’ model was given to display dissipative formation of short-term protest activity. Special role of current expectations and beliefs of population in formation of a protest was noted. In proposed modification of J. Davies’ model the authors offer to consider ratio of negative expectations and related political reality. The model is verified by materials of Ukrainian political process of the last two decades. In this article, the authors show fundamental consistency between retro-prediction of the model and real course of protest activity processes in Ukraine.

Synergetic Modification of J. Davies’ Model for Simulation of “Sudden” Formation of Protest Activity