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Why did Rudy Giuliani and John McCain skip the Iowa Caucuses in 2008? Which presidential candidates have opted out of the first-in-the-nation nomination contest—and when can they do so with impunity? To find out, this study proposes a risk/reward model based on Bartels’ (1988) conception of momentum and Gurian’s (1993) understanding of candidate strategy. To test the model, it delves into data from a newly updated 1976-2008 database on White House hopefuls’ Hawkeye State participation to explain candidate days spent in Iowa in a particular election cycle. The results suggest candidates are more likely to skip Iowa if they believe they can survive due to high national poll ratings (like Rudy Giuliani in 2008); if they are lower-tier Democrats facing the Caucuses’ 15 percent viability threshold (like Joe Lieberman in 2004); if they are incumbent presidents (like Jimmy Carter in 1980), and especially if they are “crowded out” ideologically, that is, if they are too closely surrounded by similarly positioned candidates or too distant from voters (like Sen. John McCain in 2000).

When Presidential Candidates Skip Iowa: Modeling Participation in the First-in-the-Nation Caucuses, 1976-2008