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Several mosquito species are capable of invading new geographic regions and exploiting niches that are similar to their natural home ranges where they may introduce, or reintroduce, pathogens. In addition to initial invasion, introduction of new genotypes into established populations may also occur. Zika virus is spreading throughout the world, posing a significant health risk to human populations, particularly pregnant women and their infants. India currently has active dengue and chikungunya virus circulating in the mosquito and human populations. The BioTEMS TIGER model and ArcGIS were used to analyze abiotic and biotic factors influencing potentially Zika infected Aedes species, should they enter through the sea port in Mangalore, India. The model has been validated by overlaying documented and suspected concurrent Zika cases and comparing published high risk areas for Zika virus in Australia, Florida and Brazil. In addition to Zika introduction/invasion zones being identified, output indicates surveillance and integrated mosquito management should expect larger zones than local authorities may be considering. Surveillance sites at ports should be identified and prioritized for pathogen and vector control to reduce the import of mosquitoes infected with Zika virus. Providing higher resolution predictive maps may assist local public health officials in reducing the threat of Zika virus invasion through port areas into India.

biomedical research and clinical practice

Integrated Mosquito Management and estimating direction and rate of dissemination of Zika virus infected mosquitoes in the port area of Mangalore, India