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Land use/land cover (LULC) maps are major data input for ecosystem service mapping. This paper describes the process of creating future scenarios of LULC in 2050 using the input from stakeholders for the Tualatin and Yamhill river basins of Oregon. Their comments led to the state’s regulatory land use system being used as the primary factor in how the landscape will change over time. Additionally, other biophysical and socioeconomic factors were used as secondary factors that affect the future landscape. The rates of growth were determined by basic assumptions linked to population growth. We used a geographic information system process that both graded the landscape based on a set of criteria and constrained where change can occur. Based on different assumptions of growth rate and urban density, three scenarios of high, medium, and low growth were produced. Results of the analysis indicate that growth is heaviest in areas near the current urban landscape and is driven to areas legally designated for future urban expansion. The approach highlights a way to rapidly create scenarios that provide utility toward the goal of quantifying and mapping the provision of ecosystem services. This study provides a simple but transparent approach that can appeal to stakeholders engaged in potential land use policies geared towards management of ecosystem services.

Scenario Development and Analysis of Freshwater Ecosystem Services under Land Cover and Climate Change in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins, Oregon