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Small pelagic fishes, also termed forage fishes, represent a critical link between secondary production and myriad top predators in marine ecosystems, including the Northeast US shelf. In this dissertation, I analyze the drivers of forage fish distribution throughout the Northeast US shelf and the drivers of the abundance of the ecologically important northern sand lance. Chapter 2 examines the basic ecology of northern sand lance and uses these insights to identify mechanistic drivers of their abundance. I then explore different scenarios of these drivers to project sand lance abundance through the end of the 21st century, which appears precarious for adult sand lance unless current trajectories change. Chapter 3 analyzes the environmental drivers of the distribution of the six dominant, offshore forage fish species (northern sand lance, Atlantic herring, alewife, blueback herring, Atlantic mackerel, and Atlantic butterfish) on the Northeast US shelf to elucidate the role of environmental covariates in shelf occupancy by these taxa. The results of this chapter indicate shelf occupancy of butterfish and Atlantic mackerel are increasing through time while occupancy of sand lance is decreasing with time. The occurrence of most of these species is also moving deeper and northward with time. Chapter 4 assesses the source-sink dynamics of three sand lance hotspots through Lagrangian particle tracking models simulating larval sand lance transport. Connectivity varies among these hotspots with Georges Bank and Stellwagen Bank having notable retention while the Great South Channel relies on larvae from other hotspots. Retention on Stellwagen Bank and Georges Bank are linked to strong wind events during the larval period of sand lance. Collectively, this dissertation improves our understanding of the dynamics driving variability in the Northeast US shelf forage fish complex, particularly for northern sand lance.

Environmental drivers of the abundance and distribution of forage fishes on the Northeast US shelf, with a particular emphasis on northern sand lance