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The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyze climate change effects by using statistical trends and a watershed model in the Yongdam dam watershed. The annual average air temperature was found to increase with statistical significance. In particular, greater increases were observed in autumn. Also, this study was performed to evaluate the potential climate change in the streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model (HSPF) with RCP climate change scenarios. The streamflow of Geum river showed a decrease of 5.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in the baseline data for the 2040s and 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the streamflow showed a decrease in the summer and an increase in the winter. The water temperature of Geum river showed an average increase of 0.7~1.0°C. Especially, the water temperature of Geum river showed an increase of 0.3~0.5°C in the 2040s and 0.5~1.2°C in the 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the water temperature showed an increase in winter and spring, with a decrease in summer. Therefore, it was determined that a statistical analysis-based meteorological and quantitative forecast of streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model is necessary to assess climate change impact and to establish plans for future water resource management.

Assessment of Runoff and Water temperature variations under RCP Climate Change Scenario in Yongdam dam watershed, South Korea