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For railway systems belonging to network industries with high fixed costs, it is important to increase the use of the network capacity to reduce the average cost of cargo and passenger transport services. The degree of using the capacity of the railway network sections or even the network overload depends on the system properties of the reliability and stability of the train schedule. In the conditions of daily train operations, exogenous train delays occur and cause the delay propagation among other trains in the network. Despite the importance of knowing the parameters of such delays’ propagation in the railway network, methods to assess the vulnerability of the railway system are still insufficient. This problem is especially difficult for railway systems in which there is mixed movement of passenger and cargo trains in the same infrastructure and most cargo trains do not follow the schedule. This makes it impossible to provide detailed calculations of the delay propagation in the existing train schedules. That is why a study of complex dynamic processes of propagation of successive train delays at the macrolevel of the railway network is a relevant and very promising area of research.

Development of a method for modelling delay propagation in railway networks using epidemiological SIR models