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The present study uses transition matrices to compare successional processes (colonization, disturbance, persistence and replacement) of fouling communities submitted to different light effects on Cabo Frio Island, a seasonal upwelling region. Twelve functional groups were identified, and differences in the transition probabilities shown by the matrices suggest a preference for the replacement property of functional groups, which indicates the facilitation successional mechanism. The probability of colonization of these groups differed according to the direction of the substrate, which caused a negative effect of light reduction on algae with a greater probability of disturbance (sensu species replacement), which is typical of a more stressful environment. Species of the same functional group replace each other through competition and herbivory, which promotes the distinction between earlier and later groups on the successional process. Successional trajectories evaluated through global transition matrices change at each time step because they depend on the species turnover rate, and therefore, they are informative of the changing processes of the community. The probabilistic rate of changes related to successional processes may be used to evaluate future conditions of fouling communities, and the deterministic components and stochastic elements will render these communities self-organizable

Analytical successional tools of fouling communities submitted to different light effects