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Business cycle synchronisation and the similarity in the sectoral structure ofexports are key conditions for the successful implementation of common monetarypolicy, as shown by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. This paper examinesthe degree of correlation between the aggregate euro area and 12 member states’business cycles and the role of their exports specialisation dynamicsvis-à-vis the euro area over the period 1981–2012, focusingin particular on Southern European countries. Overall, we find that since theinception of the European Monetary Union, the business cycles of euro areamember states have been increasingly synchronised with the aggregate euro areacycle, with the exception of Greece. We also document that changes in the Greek,Portuguese, and Spanish export structures brought these countries closer to theeuro area structure as a whole. Furthermore, we find a positive and significantrelationship between the similarity of export structures and GDP cyclicalcorrelations

Export specialisation and output synchronisation in the euro area: The case of Southern countries