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Determinants of fertility differ across countries, and, to some extent, across regions with shared social, economic, political, and cultural backgrounds. Therefore, I would like to refine the theme, “What is likely to be the most important factor influencing future fertility trends?”, by limiting my geographical focus to Japan, the country I am mainly studying. But my research on Japan is also relevant to other East Asian societies that have similar cultural backgrounds and fertility trends shaped by similar socioeconomic developments:2 namely, South Korea, Taiwan, and, to some extent, mainland China. These countries share, to varying degrees, family norms influenced by the tradition of Confucianism and its emphasis on patriarchal parent-child relationships, gender-based role specialization, and hierarchal relationships based on seniority (Cheng 2020). The region also includes countries/regions with some of the world’s lowest fertility rates: Taiwan (TFR: 0.90 in 2010), South Korea (TFR: 0.98 in 2018), and Japan (TFR: 1.25 in 2005). I would like to use this opportunity to share some thoughts on why fertility is so low in East Asia by (primarily) examining Japanese data; and to discuss what I see as being the most important determinant of future fertility trends in Japan and other East Asian countries.

Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia