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The lectures by David Bloom and Axel Börsch-Supan dealt with global demographic change, its dimension and economic significance. David Bloom discussed the beneficial economic consequences of a change from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility that work through increased incentives to invest in education and to save for retirement. He also stressed that the potential benefits associated with the demographic transition are dependent on the institutions and policies that prevail. Axel Börsch-Supan stressed the impact of global ageing on labour, product and capital markets. While ageing is global, the speed and extent of ageing varies across countries and these differences initiate trade and factor movements. In line with the argument by Axel Börsch-Supan, Ross Guest presented a simulation model of population ageing in a two-good, open economy framework (as opposed to a one-good, closed economy framework often found in the literature). In particular, the effect of population ageing on aggregate labour productivity is studied that arises from shifts in demand between sectors that have different capital intensity. The authors suggest that population ageing is likely to lower the demand for capital goods relative to consumer goods and test the implications for long-run labour productivity. They conclude, however, that the sectoral shifts in demand are unlikely to have serious implications for government policy or economic welfare.

Will Population Ageing Decrease Productivity? Summary of the Debate