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espanolEste documento presenta varias estimaciones de la tasa de desempleo que no acelera la inflacion (NAIRU por sus siglas en ingles) para Costa Rica. De los resultados obtenidos, destaca lo siguiente: este indicador muestra una tendencia creciente desde inicios de los noventa, que se acentua posterior a la Gran Recesion, periodo a partir del cual Costa Rica exhibe tasas de inflacion historicamente bajas; las estimaciones de brecha de desempleo (diferencia entre la tasa de desempleo observada y la NAIRU) apuntan a que desde inicios de los noventa y hasta los primeros anos de la decada de los 2000, esta tiende a ser mayormente negativa, y positiva en adelante. Para el segundo trimestre de 2017, las diferentes estimaciones coinciden en senalar que la brecha de desempleo estaba cerrada, indicando la ausencia de presiones de demanda agregada. Asimismo, a partir del ano 2004 se encuentra un fortalecimiento en la relacion entre brecha de desempleo e inflacion. EnglishIn this paper we present estimations of the Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment or NAIRU for the Costa Rican economy. We highlight the following results: The NAIRU displays an upward trend since the early 90s which was accentuated after the Great Recession when the Costa Rican inflation rate exhibits historically low levels; the estimations of the unemployment gap (the difference between the observed unemployment rate and the NAIRU) indicates that this gap was negative in the nineties and the first half of 2000’s but became positive afterwards. At the second quarter of 2017, the different estimates of the unemployment gap coincide in pointing out that this gap was closed, indicating the absence of aggregate demand pressures. In addition, since 2004, there has been a strengthening in the relationship between inflation and the unemployment gap.

Costa Rica: Estimaciones de la tasa de desempleo que no acelera la inflación