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In this paper we present an agent-based concept to assess aircraft collision risk (CR) for modern instrument flight procedures, focusing on the intermediate and final approach. The aircraft’s, ATC and CNS systems’ behavior are modelled as agents— acting stochastically by means of a Monte-Carlo simulation engine—to represent a statistically realistic environment. We first draw an overall picture of current CR estimation techniques focusing on blundering aircraft as a major hazard during approach. Then we present the ANP-based CR calculation and the agentbased simulation of nominal trajectories in detail, covering virtually all other hazards. By applying the model to various approach traffic configurations, we could demonstrate the potential for detailed insight into CR drivers. Therefore, various acceleration techniques were evaluated (mathematical parameter reduction, parallelization, sampling heuristics). We could improve the implementation so as to apply the model to the ‘classic’ safety case of blundering during parallel ILS approaches as defined by ICAO SOIR and the ‘novel’ safety case of turning onto the final approach track from radar vectors at reasonable computing times. The results indicate that ‘classic’ CR values are reproducible from published assumptions and that only a few, well-justifiable and thus verifiable model extensions are required to successfully assess ‘novel’ safety cases. As such, the presented model may revive CR considerations for modern procedure design in complex TMA environments. Collision Risk Modeling; Agent-Based Modeling; Independent Parallel Approach Procedure; Blundering; Target Level of Safety.

Using agent-based modeling to determine collision risk in complex TMA environments: the turn-onto-ILS-final safety case