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This paper proposes an alternative methodology to project the demand of traffic flow of a concession project, since demand is a relevant variable for state decisionmaking in the context of the renegotiation of contracts concession. In this regard, we propose a methodology considering a variant of the “Travel Demand Model Based on Elasticities” and “Time Series Model Multivariate Nonstationary”. The proposed methodology is applied, by way of reference, in the projection of traffic coil Station Tranche Concession Ancon-Huacho-Pativilca of the Panamericana Norte (Red Vial No 5).

Un modelo econométrico de proyección de la demanda futura del flujo vehicular en las concesiones en transporte