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A methodology is presented for evaluating the potential surface fault displacement on reverse faults in a probabilistic manner. This methodology follows the procedures put forth for Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA). Empirical probability distributions that are central to performing a PFDHA are derived from field investigations of reverse faulting events. Statistical analyses are used to test previously assumed properties of scale invariance with respect to magnitude for normalized displacement. It is found that normalized displacement is statistically invariant with respect to magnitude and focal mechanism, allowing for the combination of a large number of events into a single dataset for regression purposes. An empirical relationship is developed using this single dataset to be used as a fault displacement prediction equation. A PFDHA is conducted on the Los Osos fault zone in central California and a hazard curve for fault displacement is produced. A full sensitivity analysis is done using this fault as a reference, to test for the sources of variability in the PFDHA methodology. The influence of the major primary variables is quantified to provide a future direction for PFDHA. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank Professor Robb Moss for helping me to find a field of study that I am truly passionate about. Without him, my academic path—including this research—would not be heading in the direction it is today. I am thoroughly grateful for having had the privilege to be his student. taking the time out of their busy schedules to be an integral part of my master's thesis experience. It is wonderful to have had such strong support and assistance from the faculty at Cal Poly, and I feel I am a far better person because of it. Abstract We present a methodology for evaluating potential surface fault displacement due to reverse faulting events in a probabilistic manner. This methodology, called probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis, or PFDHA, follows procedures that were originally applied to normal faulting. We present empirical distributions for surface rupture, maximum and average displacement, spatial variability of slip, and other random variables that are central to performing PFDHA for reverse faults. Additionally , a sensitivity analysis is conducted on all independent variables in the PFDHA procedure. The Los Osos fault zone of Central California is used as the test case, and results are presented in the form of a hazard curve. The influence each of the variables has on a hazard …

Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis For Reverse Faults and Surface Rupture Scale Invariance