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In this paper, the authors will attempt to estimate the expected per centage of the companies that currently have credit rating and that will go bankrupt after a certain period of time. The authors applied the method of simulation, i.e. the transition matrix of a Markov chain, using the relevant information on the credit ratings of open joint-stock companies listed on the SP that is, they will lose their credit rating and will be replaced by some other, more prosperous companies. Apstrakt: U ovom radu, autori su pokusali da predvide ocekivani procenat privrednih drustava, koja trenutno imaju kreditni rejting, a koja ce prestati sa poslovanjem nakon izvesnog vremena. Autori su primenili metod simulacije, odnosno tranzicionu matricu Markovljevih lanaca, na podacima o kreditnom rejtingu otvorenih akcionarskih drustava sa liste S&P 500 berzanskog indeksa. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je najverovatniji scenario da ce polovina privrednih drustava sa najlosijim kreditnim rejtingom, na primer CCC (C), prestati da postoje nakon samo cetiri godine. Odnosno, ta privredna drustva ce izgubiti kreditni rejting i bice zamenjena nekim drugim, prosperitetnijim, privrednim drustvom.

Predicting the Lifespan of a Company: An Important Factor for Capital Reallocat