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In this paper, we consider the main factors affecting the potential economic growth of China in the future and their transmission mechanism, in order to construct an economic system model and forecast the scale and structure of China’s economy over the next 20 years. In the benchmark scenario, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates from 2016–2020, 2021–2025, 2026–2030, and 2031–2035 are 6.4 %, 5.6 %, 4.9 %, and 4.5 %, respectively. In 2035, China’s GDP scale will be 10.06 times greater than in 2000, 3.99 times greater than in 2010, and 2.02 times greater than in 2020. Over the next 20 years, investment-driven economic growth will gradually change into a new stage of development that is led by consumption demand. In the face of slowing growth in developed economies and the gradual reduction of its domestic labor force, China needs to strengthen its research and education investment; improve investment efficiency, total factor productivity, and technological progress; promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry; and accelerate the tax reform of the financial system and the reform of the income distribution system.

Analysis and Forecast of China's Total Economy and Its Structure from 2016–2035