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We aimed to assess the association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG) change trajectory and incident hypertension among Chinese population. This cohort study included 11,791 adults aged 18–80 years without hypertension at first entry and who completed at least four follow-ups between 2009 and 2016. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for the association between FPG change trajectory and probability of hypertension. During a median follow-up of 5.10 years (total person–years 61,887.76), hypertension developed in 2177 participants. After adjusting for baseline potential confounders, the probability of hypertension increased with the increasing FPG change trajectory (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.22, 95% CI 1.07–1.40), bell-shape trajectory (aOR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.30) and other-shape trajectory (aOR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02–1.25) which showed a higher variability of FPG compared to the decreasing group. In addition, the increasing FPG change trajectory was associated with a higher probability of hypertension compared with the decreasing group regardless of age and BMI but was only significant in males and in those with normal FPG at baseline. Our study indicates that the increasing FPG change trajectory determines the highest risk of hypertension, demonstrating the importance of maintaining low and stable levels of FPG, especially in males and in those with normal FPG.

Association of fasting plasma glucose change trajectory and risk of hypertension: a cohort study in China