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Exploring building energy demands under the conditions of climate change can provide a basis for promoting building energy efficiency. The heating and cooling loads of commercial and residential buildings with different energy-saving standards from 1961-2009 in a large city in northern China were simulated and their responses to climate change and variability were analyzed. The results showed that the heating load for commercial buildings significantly decreased from 1961 to 2009 (P<0.01), whereas the cooling load weakly but not significantly increased over these 49 years (P>0.05). This may indicate that continuous rising temperatures in the future may apparently decrease heating load, but not largely increase energy load for cooling. The heating loads in all types of residential buildings showed a large and significant decrease from 1961 to 2009 (P < 0.01). However, decreasing rate gradually decreased from the firstto the third-stage energy-saving buildings, indicating decreasing sensitivity to climate change with enhancement of energy-saving standards. The variations of heating loads are dominantly controlled by the mean air temperature, which can explain up to 90% of the heating load. The climate change influence on the cooling load of a commercial building is dependent on month. Cooling load is dominantly related to air temperature in June and September, whereas it relates to the combination of humidity and temperature in July and August. These results may indicate that improvement of energy efficiency for building cooling should be considered by the combined effects of humidity and temperature rather than a single temperature.

How Climate Change Impacts Energy Load Demand for Commercial and Residential Buildings in a Large City in Northern China