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The starting point of this article is the Great Recession of 2008/9. It is compared to the “Gründerkrise” of 1873/9 because monetary, institutional and structural problems overlapped. Discussing new quantitative studies this article suggests that business cycles should be analysed on the basis of disaggregate time series as well as by considering sociocultural factors. In this context, a historical economic barometer for the period of 1869-1900 is constructed according to the Ifo Business Climate Index for the first time. It confirms the well known “Gründerzeit”-pattern of boom and crisis which was revised for the real economy recently. With regard to the theoretical context of long-term structural cycles, the “Gründerkrise” is finally interpreted as a structural crisis whose course was extraordinarily severe because of unregulated stock market speculation.

Die Gründerkrise von 1873/79 - Fiktion oder Realität? Einige Überlegungen im Kontext der Weltfinanz- und Wirtschaftskrise von 2008/2009