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Predictive coding (PC) posits that the brain uses a generative model to infer the environmental causes of its sensory data and uses precision-weighted prediction errors (pwPEs) to continuously update this model. While supported by much circumstantial evidence, experimental tests grounded in formal trial-by-trial predictions are rare. One partial exception is event-related potential (ERP) studies of the auditory mismatch negativity (MMN), where computational models have found signatures of pwPEs and related model-updating processes. Here, we tested this hypothesis in the visual domain, examining possible links between visual mismatch responses and pwPEs. We used a novel visual "roving standard" paradigm to elicit mismatch responses in humans (of both sexes) by unexpected changes in either color or emotional expression of faces. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we simulated pwPE trajectories of a Bayes-optimal observer and used these to conduct a comprehensive trial-by-trial analysis across the time × sensor space. We found significant modulation of brain activity by both color and emotion pwPEs. The scalp distribution and timing of these single-trial pwPE responses were in agreement with visual mismatch responses obtained by traditional averaging and subtraction (deviant-minus-standard) approaches. Finally, we compared the Bayesian model to a more classical change model of MMN. Model comparison revealed that trial-wise pwPEs explained the observed mismatch responses better than categorical change detection. Our results suggest that visual mismatch responses reflect trial-wise pwPEs, as postulated by PC. These findings go beyond classical ERP analyses of visual mismatch and illustrate the utility of computational analyses for studying automatic perceptual processes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Human perception is thought to rely on a predictive model of the environment that is updated via precision-weighted prediction errors (pwPEs) when events violate expectations. This "predictive coding" view is supported by studies of the auditory mismatch negativity brain potential. However, it is less well known whether visual perception of mismatch relies on similar processes. Here we combined computational modeling and electroencephalography to test whether visual mismatch responses reflected trial-by-trial pwPEs. Applying a Bayesian model to series of face stimuli that violated expectations about color or emotional expression, we found significant modulation of brain activity by both color and emotion pwPEs. A categorical change detection model performed less convincingly. Our findings support the predictive coding interpretation of visual mismatch responses.

Visual Mismatch and Predictive Coding: A Computational Single-Trial ERP Study