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Emotionally evocative messages can be an effective way to change behavior, but the neural pathways that translate messages into effects on individuals and populations are not fully understood. We used a human functional neuroimaging approach to ask how affect-, value-, and regulation-related brain systems interact to predict effects of graphic anti-smoking messages for individual smokers (both males and females) and within a population-level messaging campaign. Results indicated that increased activity in the amygdala, a region involved in affective reactivity, predicted both personal quit intentions and population-level information-seeking and this was mediated by activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), a region involved in computing an integrative value signal. Further, the predictive value of these regions was moderated by expression of a meta-analytically defined brain pattern indexing emotion regulation. That is, amygdala and vmPFC activity strongly tracked with population behavior only when participants showed low recruitment of this brain pattern, which consists of regions involved in goal-driven regulation of affective responses. Overall, these findings suggest that affective and value-related brain responses can predict the success of persuasive messages and that neural mechanisms of emotion regulation can shape these responses, moderating the extent to which they track with population-level message impact. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT People and organizations often appeal to our emotions to persuade us, but how these appeals engage the brain to drive behavior is not fully understood. We present an fMRI-based model that integrates affect-, control-, and value-related brain responses to predict the impact of graphic anti-smoking stimuli within a small group of smokers and a larger-scale public messaging campaign. This model indicated that amygdala activity predicted the impact of the anti-smoking messages, but that this relationship was mediated by ventromedial prefrontal cortex and moderated by expression of a distributed brain pattern associated with regulating emotion. These results suggest that neural mechanisms of emotion regulation can shape the extent to which affect and value-related brain responses track with population behavioral effects.

Neural Mechanisms of Emotion Regulation Moderate the Predictive Value of Affective and Value-Related Brain Responses to Persuasive Messages