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Determining the inland extent (IE) of lake effect snow (LES) is an ongoing operational forecasting challenge at the Albany and Binghamton National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices, and several other NWS forecast offices in the Great Lakes region. Assuming favorable conditions for development of LES, determining how far inland snow bands will extend is critical to forecasters making decisions supporting the NWS watch/ warning/advisory program and resulting impact-based decision support services. This research sought to identify which atmospheric parameters commonly have the greatest influence on how far inland LES bands travel, and to develop forecasting techniques to assist meteorologists. Single band LES events for the 2006–2009 winter seasons were examined downwind of Lake Ontario. The IE of LES bands was measured over the duration of each event and broken into quartiles. The quartiles were used to create categories for IE (short, moderate, and long). Several parameters were analyzed, using statistical correlations at data points within, and just outside of, LES bands. Box-and-whiskers plots were constructed for individual parameters relative to each IE category. The most strongly correlated parameters to IE included existence of a multi-lake/upstream moisture source connection (MLC), mixed-layer (ML) stability (represented by lake–air temperature differentials), 0–1-km bulk shear, and mean ML wind speed. LES bands featuring an MLC showed a greater tendency to progress farther inland, compared to those without. A predictive equation for forecasting IE of LES downwind of Lake Ontario was developed from a statistical model using a stepwise and backwards selection algorithm. A crossvalidation method was used to determine skill. ABSTRACT (Manuscript received 22 April 2016; review completed 9 February 2017)

Forecasting the Inland Extent of Lake Effect Snow Bands Downwind of Lake Ontario