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Weakly forced large-scale weather patterns often dominate the warm season (June–September) in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. In this regime, forecasting thunderstorm development is often tied to very subtle features, making this task particularly challenging. There appears to be a link between middleand lower-level moisture content (specifically at 850–700 hPa) and the frequency of thunderstorm development, with little variability in many other meteorological variables. Higher 850–700-hPa relative humidity values link to much higher rates of thunderstorm development.

Warm-season thunderstorm development as a function of vertical distribution of relative humidity in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas