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This paper describes an operational severe weather checklist developed at the National Weather Service Forecast Office (WFO) in Binghamton, New York (BGM). The checklist contains a traditional severe weather parameter data entry section and a historical analog retrieval section. Parameters on the checklist are related to the synoptic weather pattern, stability, vertical wind shear, and moisture. The analog retrieval portion of the checklist returns information on five historical events that are analogous to current conditions, based on data entered into the checklist. An example of the utility of the checklist is shown for a major severe weather event on 28 April 2011 that featured numerous severe weather reports (including seven tornadoes) in the WFO BGM county warning area. The top analog retrieved by the checklist for this case was associated with 17 tornadoes, and another analog featured three tornadoes. Results from a verification study on the similarity between 81 test events and corresponding analogs are shown. High correlations were found between values of convective available potential energy and bulk shear in the test cases versus corresponding values of those parameters in the analogs. A comparison of radar imagery and severe weather reports associated with the test cases and corresponding analogs indicates that the system can help forecasters anticipate convective mode and discriminate between major and null severe events. The system also provides useful guidance on the potential for tornadoes and convective flash flooding, and may help forecasters decide whether events will be dominated by wind or hail.

A historical analog-based severe weather checklist for central New York and northeastern Pennsylvania