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The National Weather Service uses probability of detection and false alarm ratio to assess forecast performance. Statistical evidence indicates that a quantitative relationship exists between these forecast performance metrics and the frequency with which a forecasted condition occurs. Current national aviation performance goals do not account for this relationship, which reduces their utility. There is meaningful evidence that indicates the influence of low ceiling/visibility frequency on national aviation forecast performance metric averages can be neutralized through scale normalization.

Scale normalization for IFR-frequency effects in aviation forecast performance statistics