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This paper quantifies the effects of increased employment of elderly persons on the growth potential of the German economy until 2030. Starting from an analysis of the labour market situation of elderly persons today, we construct nine scenarios for the future development of the employment level of the elderly. These scenarios differ in participation rates, unemployment rates, and hours worked of the elderly. For each scenario, we then calculate the corresponding production potential of the German economy and percapita income levels. The difference in per-capita income in 2030 between the scenarios with the highest and lowest employment level is 10 %.

Demografie und Wachstum: Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte einer höheren Erwerbstätigkeit Älterer