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It is often argued that the globalisation of the world economy might have contributed to an increased instability of real economic activity, in particular for small open economies. At the same time, there is evidence that the volatility of real economic activity might in fact have been dampened. This contribution addresses the question whether the volatility of GDP in Germany has changed and, if so, which factors could be responsible for this. We argue that a more successful monetary policy has - to some extent - contributed to this development. However, the lion’s share of the volatility decline is likely to come from other factors like smaller exogenous shocks, technological progress, and the effect of globalisation.

Der Rückgang konjunktureller Schwankungen in Deutschland: Bessere Geldpolitik oder nur Glück gehabt?