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Although the ERM II rules allow the Danish krone to fluctuate against the euro within an official target zone of 4.5%, most of the time the exchange rate has remained in a narrow range around its unconditional mean. Estimating a Smooth Transition Autoregression Target Zone (STARTZ) model confirms that the exchange rate exhibits target zone dynamics consistent with a band of approximately 0.75% around its unconditional mean. We conclude that the Danmark Nationalbank intervention policy of intra-marginal operations successfully managed an informal target zone in the foreign exchange market.

The Danish krone-euro exchange rate and Danmark Nationalbank intervention operations