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Predicting the productivity of fractured five-spot patterns in low permeability reservoirs at high water cut stages has an important significance for the development and optimization of reservoirs. Taking the reservoir heterogeneity and uneven distribution of the remaining oil into consideration, a novel method for predicting the transient productivity of fractured five-spot patterns in low permeability reservoirs at high water cut stages is proposed by using element analysis, the flow tube integration method, and the mass conservation principle. This new method is validated by comparing with actual production data from the field and the results of a numerical simulation. Also, the effects of related parameters on transient productivity are analyzed. The results show that increasing fracture length, pressure difference and reservoir permeability correspond to an increasing productivity. The research provides theoretical support for the development and optimization of fractured five-spot patterns at the high water cut stage.

New prediction method for transient productivity of fractured five-spot patterns in low permeability reservoirs at high water cut stages