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This paper investigates whether patterns of technological specialisation of advanced countries change over a period of time in which globalisation in technology occurs. The theoretical analysis of this question is based on models of new growth and trade theory - especially a model by Grossman/ Helpman (1991) - as well as on clues from evolutionary economics. The empirical analysis is divided into three parts. First, based on the patent applications in 42 R&amp;D-intensive product groups of ten advanced countries, structural decomposition analysis is used to investigate the effects that determine growth in inventive activity. Secondly, the concepts of β- and σ-despecialisation (or specialisation), which are very similar to the concepts of β- and σ-convergence (or divergence), are applied to the same data to investigate whether the countries are converging in technology. Thirdly, for a longer but less disaggregated time series, the impact of the adaptation of technical knowledge on foreign product trade is examined by a multivariate autoregressive model (transfer function model). Taking all results together, evidence points to rather stable specialisations whereby the structural effects are not predominant. However, results indicating β-despecialisation also show that the majority of national innovation systems are now moving towards an average specialisation. Yet, country-specific economic structures seem to remain more important as global changes in technology, when their appropriation for international trade is concerned.

jahrbücher für nationalökonomie und statistik

Convergence in Global High Technology? / Konvergenz in der globalen Hochtechnologie?: A Decomposition and Specialisation. Analysis for Advanced Countries / Eine Dekompositions- und Spezialisierungsanalyse fortgeschrittener Volkswirtschaften