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This paper investigates the price impact of the fuel discount in Germany, which was introduced between June and August 2022 to partially compensate increased energy costs. Using the augmented synthetic control method (ASCM) to construct the counterfactual, we provide quantitative evidence to the heated debate concerning the impact of this policy tool and find the fuel discount to have decreased consumer prices of petrol (diesel) by at least 0.30 euro per litre (0.10 euro per litre) on average. The results are robust to various sensitivity checks. Thus, oil companies and petrol stations decreased prices for consumers and passed on about 85 % (65 %) of the discount in case of petrol (diesel). Moreover, we do not find signs of excessive price increases in anticipation of the fuel discount.

The Impact of the German Fuel Discount on Prices at the Petrol Pump