English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Zendy Open

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Insights

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Zendy Tools

Zendy Plus

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

This paper develops a threshold function of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and allows the effect of AMO index changes over time due to global warming to yield improvements in the forecasts of U.S. hurricane activity. The influence of the threshold effect, the AMO effect, and the global warming effect on Value at Risk and expected shortfall of hurricane risk is also examined. The empirical results of a time-variant threshold Poisson regression model provide an excellent projection for which the forecasting error of average annual U.S. hurricane activity is less than one. We find that the threshold effect and global warming effect dominate the AMO effect. In particular, the global warming effect dominates the AMO effect in extreme hurricane events, and this domination increases over time.

Measuring U.S. Hurricane Risk Associated with Natural Climate Cycle and Global Warming Effects