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This article is part of a little-explored literature, seeking to identify the relationship between the price of petroleum and the real exchange rate in a small, open, and regional economy in the department of Valle del Cauca, Colombia. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and a Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) are used with monthly data from 2001 to 2015. The results show that a boost in real exchange rate generates positive impacts on the economy and a boost in the price of petroleum generates negative and asymmetric effects in the economy. This is due to a negative effect on industry competitiveness and the wear and tear of consumption.

revista finanzas y política económica/revista finanzas y política económica

Impactos indirectos de la tasa de cambio y los precios del petróleo en una economía no petrolera: aproximaciones VECM y VAR para el Valle del Cauca, Colombia