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IRGC’s emerging-risks project explores the origins of emerging systemic risks, and, in ongoing work, is developing guidance for practitioners on how to improve their anticipation of and response to these risks. This article describes the IRGC’s concept of “contributing factors” to risk emergence: generic factors that can affect the likelihood that a new risk will emerge, or the severity of its consequences. We explore here the factors that are particularly pertinent to systemic risks, because they derive largely from interactions and interdependencies, and relate to the properties of complex systems. We also emphasise the importance of taking a systems perspective and of understanding traits common to complex systems.2

Contributing Factors to the Emergence of Systemic Risks