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In the years 1994-1996, I started to think about how much meaning luck has when trading stocks, FOREX, and corresponding derivatives. Therefore, I developed a simple formula, which describes how much your capital can grow if you have a rare lottery winner’s luck when investing in volatile markets. In the end I found that indeed, you need the luck of a Finnish lottery winner to expand your little capital to extreme heights, especially when trading with highly volatile stock index derivatives. If we assume that markets are fully competitive, extremely volatile, and even inside information is useless when trying to trade in a profitable way, by using this simple formula, we can see that even a relatively small amount of capital can grow to an extremely large sum of money.

Can huge market profits of the best investors be explained by a lottery winner's luck?